Short answer...we have no idea BUT NIWA/MetService Seasonal Forecast can give us a feel for the general pattern.
Issued on the 10th Jan.
Waikato, Taumarunui, Taihape, Taupo, TaranakiRAIN: about normal, but continuing below normal in some inland areas.
WIND: easterly episodes.
TEMPERATURE: continuing above normal.
SUNSHINE: continuing about normal.
SPECIALS: thunderstorms.
CONFIDENCE: moderate.
Extended dry periods are likely as anticyclones cross southern New Zealand. When an anticyclone moves off to the east, there may be a day or so of rain from a passing trough, followed by a day or so of isolated torrential thunderstorms. Some rain days may be associated with a low approaching from the north.
And as you can see we have just had rain associated with a low from the north...46mm last night.
It's also worth noting that no mention is made of westerlies...so maybe the ridge will be "out of bounds".
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