Rain Rain

Maurice Weaver and the Philosopher's Stone...

You will recall how Australia's roving tourist guide, Maurice Weaver, has been helping geographically challanged Americian's with their questions...here another one; Q from the USA - Which direction is North in Australia. A helpful Maurice replies - Face south and then turn 180 degrees. Contact us when you get here and we'll send the rest of the directions. One wonders how these guys ever found mainland America in the Mayflower all those centuries ago. Although they did leave from Plymouth England and arrived in Plymouth Massachusetts..."alright everybody back on the boat...we're gone round in a big circle..." It's raining...good for farming, bad for gliding. I desperately need some practise time before the Nationals. Here's an idea...Maurice in the club's LS4 ang myself join Paul in his ASW20 in the Club class. Make it a real contest in the club class as Roy only has 4 entries... We would then need to put pressure on the contest director to instruct his task setters to set bigger tasks. I know he doesn't agree but he's being a bit of a "big girls blouse"...come on Roy, just get them to put bigger circles around the Fast classes turnpoints.

Gliding this weekend...forget it.

More of Maurice's trials...you will be aware that Maurice is Australia's unoffical Offical at the Fijian Gliding club, here is some of the questions he has been required to answer by budding tourists to Australia... Q from the USA - Can you give me some information about hippo racing in Australia ? Maurice - A-fri-ca is the big triangle shaped continent south of Europe. Aus-tra-lia is that big island in the middle of the Pacific which does not ... Oh forget it. Sure, the hippo racing is every Tuesday night in Kings Cross. Come naked. Another Question from our Geographically challanged friends who like the Bush family - Can you send me the Vienna Boys' Choir schedule? A considerate Maurice replies - Aus-tri-a is that quaint little country bordering Ger-man-y, which is ... Oh forget it. Sure, the Vienna Boys Choir plays every Tuesday night in Kings Cross, straight after the hippo races. Come naked.

Friday...

A small inversion is starting to appear at 6000ft. Should stop the thermals from over-developing into TStorms. Anybody who is keen cloud base should be 5000ft-6500ft inland. Light Easterlies and probably an early sea breeze about the coasts. If it gets to 26 plus degrees around Taupo it'll really "go off" but will then probably degenerate into towering Cu's or TStorms. I'm busy again but some-one should have a go... As Maurice is Australia's unoffical Offical at the Fijian Gliding club here is some of the questions he has been required to answer by budding tourists to Australia. Q from the UK: Does it ever get windy in Australia ? I have never seen it rain on TV, how do the plants grow? Maurice: We import all plants fully grown and then just sit around watching them die. More to follow...

For Maurice

Why is it crappy at present???

The squiggly lines graph shows low cloud bases...3000ft max around Tauranga, sea breezes and very high cloud tops. That's why metservice has been forecasting thunderstorms. I'm guessing today will blue around the coast with 8/8's cloud inland.

We need a total change of airmass. Can't see much on the horizon for a few days yet. No good for practising for the Nationals.

Oh and if anybody is interested, I have had NO part in the debate about club trips away. I wasn't planning on going anyhow. But for some reason I seem to be getting all these E-mails...I my humble opinion bulk e-mails to all club members should be banned...I don't maintain a list of e-mails to club members except to those I fly with or need to communicate with one on one.

If you get an E-mail from me you should be honoured (I my opinion...)...

Tried...and failed.

Full colour version (B & W version further down for life members who have forgotten their spec's)...the forecast was right and, at the same time, wrong. Cloud base was 3500ft, that part was right. I had forecast some strong thermals that might generate towering Cu's, got that part wrong. Metservice had suggested sea breezes, they got that wrong. The westerlies stayed strong enough to generate broken wave. Poor day all round really. I did 1 hour and tossed in the towel.

The forecast was right and, at the same time, wrong. Cloud base was 3500ft, that part was right. I had forecast some strong thermals that might generate towering Cu's, got that part wrong. Metservice had suggested sea breezes, they got that wrong. The westerlies stayed strong enough to generate broken wave. Poor day all round really. I did 1 hour and tossed in the towel.

Am I this desperate??

Light westerlies. 10 knots at ground level and maybe 15-20knots at 6500ft. There is some signs of wave about at present. Interestingly Metservice is forecasting sea breezes in the Bay?? I'm not convinced... The squiggly lines graphs for here, Matamta, Taupo and Mangakino aren't that encouraging. Maximum cloud baes late in the afternoon of maybe 5500-6000ft in the southern areas and only 3500-4000 about Tauranga/Matamta. If the thermals get too strong things will explode and we will see heavy showers. There is no signs of any inversions in place so once things get going T/Storms are possible. I think it'll be a late start to the day with some ridge effect, showers about the ranges, and some big gaps. If you hit a good thermal it could be quite strong due to the strong heating on the ground at this time of the year. Let's see...

So how desperate are you??

Haven't had a good days flying for weeks???

Need some practise time before the Nationals???

Want to get out of the house???

Wondering if parts of your glider might fall off if you don't use it soon?

The battery is so so so fully charged it might explode???

Well Sunday afternoon has your name written all over it...

Admittedly it looks like crap but it's less crap than any other day this week..

At this stage it looks like a ridge/wave/thermal day...take your pick...

Better forecast on sunday morning..

Rain Rain

Crap for gliding...great for farming. First significant rain we have had for a couple of months and it would appear those annoying westerlies have gone. Hopefully this bout of NE weather will depart before the Nationals in Taupo.

Gloomy week

Back from the beach. Ready to go gliding...but it looks like a crap week until after next weekend.

Looks precisely like the weather we usually get for a gliding contest...is there one on I don't know about???

Maybe I should stick to squiggly lines...

The flash forecast tool over called Saturday, especially about the coast. Essentially the wind dropped off too fast and we couldn't get away from the coast. My reading of the squiggly lines (read - tea leaves) suggested big blue areas...and so it was. I think it was booming inland...especially around Galatea and south. Should have been a great day out of Taupo. I'm away from home for the next week. I'm hoping it'll rain non-stop...

Saturday - go go

Tried out the forecast tool developed by Dr Jack (UK based) which has been adjusted for NZ. As much as I can work out it is a development on squiggly lines graph with wind added in, plus lots of other stuff. It is forecasting a very good day especially inland. Forecast cloud bases in the Taupo/Mangakino area is upto 9000ft. It is also forecasting 7000ft over Tokoroa. Thermals of 6-7 knots in most places. No overdevelopment to speak of. As best as I can forecast off the squiggly lines is a high cloud base although blue in some areas. Winds dropping off although still 20knots SW above 10,000ft which would shear off the tops of any major cloud developments. High cloud is the risk. I can see some from here and the squiggly lines are forecasting areas of high cloud about the place. It will be moving quite fast as the upper upper winds (30,000ft) are quite strong. I'm keen to give it a try. If it does develop as forecast it'll be a great day. Suggest task that goes North first to avoid late afternoon sea breezes follwed by a dive down south. Maurice - you will, of course, want to fly tomorrow as these forecasts are out by 24 hours.

Saturday Forecast

Could be on for another good day. Depends how fast this front passes through and how quick the SW wind abates...Better forecast early tomorrow...

Wednesday the 6th

More Northerly than yesterday so sea breezes will start earlier. I'd expect cloud bases to be similiar especially inland and with the warmer ground temperatures the thermals could be stronger in places. You'll need to launch early to avoid the sea breeze and it could be blue to start with. Cloud bases inland of 6-6500ft, probably nearer 4500ft at the coast. I'd expect convergening sea breezes in the Waikato later this afternoon. A soarable day but I'm going off to work. PS I think I was spot on with cloud bases yesterday.

Not a bad afternoons work...

The day was a little late getting started but turned into a half-pie reasonable soaring afternoon. Best climbs were over Galatea 4-5 knots, as usual it was tricky going around Atiamuri, and the ridge was barely working.

GKM landed out at Tokoroa on the way home.

Interesting doing the "round Rotorua" route in reverse...

Wind needs to drop off...

Metservice are forecasting the winds to ease. They will need to if we are to get a day that isn't confined to the ridge. If it does drop things are looking good. Cloud bases could go higher further south. And I've just realised we will need a tow pilot...anyone know of one looking for an hours towing around 11.30am?

Early Heads up...Tuesday

Looking good at this early stage. Light winds, maybe sea breezes near the coast. Cloud base 6500ft and higher. Expecting reasonable thermal strengths and some ridge activity.

I'll update either late tonight or early tomorrow.

Possible task...Poripori - Flaxmill - Rangitaiki - home....or some such track.

Today...First day of 2010

Hmmm...not looking crash hot...although it will be hot on this side of the Island (26-27 degrees). The squiggly line graph is forecasting blue conditions both around here and further south. Thermal height not alot different from yesterday. Light westerlies so the ridge will work. I think it'll be hot enough for sea breeze convergences near the coast.

And so it was...

A very good last day for 2009...cloud bases were 5000ft and thermals were fairly reliable with climbs upto 10 knots (apparently...unconfirmed). The ridge worked from about 1pm onwards (which I hadn't really forecast).