So the RASP was right...and wrong...at the sametime.

It did successfully predict wave all over the Nth Is. It just didn't suggest whether it was use-able...which it wasn't due to all the cloud...

RASP predicts Wave

Let's see how good this RASP thingy is at predicting wave.
If you gaze at the forecast 10,000ft wind graphical below, the shades or blue to yellow indicate lift and sink. The model is suggesting wave behind almost every hill.
Some one once thought they could join the Kaimai wave to the wave behind Ruapehu and then into the Hawkes Bay and south.
Today is the day to do that...good luck.

Wave is a fickle thing..especially in the north Island...down south it seems to be everywhere.

Only trap I can see with the forecast is the wind strength doesn't seem to increase with height all that much. But you go girls...remember take some socks - it's cold up there.

Forecast was fairly accurate...

Cloud base was 4-4500ft. Some wave, ridge and some thermals. High cloud appeared at 4pm...how good is that?
Lots of water in the rivers...

Not a big day...quite grey in the Waikato.

It can all go wrong in a hurry...

This from Omarama yesterday...
A blustery southerly caught BO and PPA out. The Pawnee PPA drifted off the runway into the rough and groundlooped. The Duo Discus BO on tow followed him and hit a hollow in the rough that broke the tail boom.
No one was hurt.
The other striking thing about Omarama this summer is how green the airfield and surrounds are...it continues to rain all over NZ.

Inversion? What inversion...

There is a big inversion in place already.
It'll do 2 things. Stop thermals rising much above 4500ft and make the day go blue from 1-2pm onwards.

West to SW wind is forecast to blow all day, and probably at sufficient strength to keep any sea breeze at bay.

Will we get wave? Probably, but will it be good enough to use to cross the ridge?? Not sure.
It'll be a ridge day for sure, for sure. But how good?

To add to the mix the squiggly lines are suggesting some high cloud late in the day...probably from the front hitting the lower South Island.

Poripori at 1pm. Bases at 4000ft and going blue. Note the increasing wind with height...blue wave?

Te Papa at 4pm. Te Papa...where's that??? It is not the National Museum, it's the intersection of the road between Tirau and Rotorua.
Note the lines coming together near the top of the graph...

 

Sunday

A ridge day...plus wave...and some thermals.

I'll have a better look early tomorrow morning but it's shaping up as a good day to either, tow to the ridge, or climb in wave and drop down.

I think the SW will be strong enough to go up the Coromandels to look at the rain damage, and back down towards Putaruru.

170mm's in 6 hours...what do you get?

Lake Jensen

Tow-planes...again.

The issue of the local club's tow-planes was thrashed about for a while at the pilots meeting.
As is usual we lacked any real information so what we got was alot of personal opinions...however it was illuminating, more for what wasn't said...
It should be noted that about 5 years ago the club formed a sub-committee (the standard kiwi response to a problem...) who were asked to go out and see whats options were available.

This group was asked to consider -
- what performance characteristic's were required of a tow-plane operating on 04/22 towing the current and expected club fleet.
- can we move away from fabric aircraft and more towards modern plastic's/glass??
- we should also move away from air cooled Lycoming engines...for a whole host of reasons
- the availability of AvGas was under question...and I believe it still is...
- the noise footprint is an issue as we tow out over the city, and we couldn't, in all honesty, buy a tow-plane that was louder.
- cost of operation
- cost of purchase
- insurance, safety, compliance issues...eg does a homebuilt (RV's) or micro-lights (various brands) meet these tests? Are you allowed to tow gliders at less than 500ft over a built up area - think Hewletts Road???
- is there any robust data about? It's all very well saying "an RV9 climbs at 2000fpm", but does it with a Duo on the back??? The striking thing about a number of other tow planes we have tested, the performance under tow is quite different than you might have expected...both good and bad.

The short summary was...nothing was available, or was suitable. I don't think much has changed. So discounting suggestions for planes that no longer exist, or personal hopes or biases, I think all we can ask for is a regular review of what could be available...and regular is probably every 5 years.

Pity really...I was looking forward to a plastic/glass built, diesel powered, water cooled, tow-plane that out performed the current fleet...

Saturday...no, Sunday...yes, Monday...maybe

Better forecasts in the morning. At this early stage sundays looks a possible wave/ridge/thermal day whereas Monday has a small front arriving late in the day...should stuff up cloud bases...but we'll see.

Computer Tech support...

Tech Support: Okay Bob, press the control and escape
keys at the same time.  That brings up a task list in the
middle of the screen..  Now, type the letter 'P' to bring
up the Program Manager.
Customer: I don't have a 'P'.
Tech Support: On your keyboard, Bob.
Customer: What do you mean ?
Tech Support: 'P' . . . on your keyboard, Bob.
Customer: I AM NOT GOING TO DO THAT!!!

A newsletter and website

Paul Remede's new Newsletter -

http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=mfcbgfcab&et=1104301392833&s=3643&e=001E3vL0Fchpfdm-slhX-yzkI3MRwaY2E7PnKn6HgETHknKcB5hqr4kWO-HllzNrD23MuNgt3mbrvZJbKw3phVaII9oTy2g1hzRW6nHNxutIbyr8EP5P1hLOe2gOymOGdtjvNm6dp7F9yBM-uzLEgokOpFCkqNa-Tq8  

 

And a good new website...http://soaringcafe.com/

 

 

Today...no go I'm afraid



Ok for training, not much chop for X-country stuff. Not much good around Tauranga, the Waikato or Taupo.
I'm looking at a change in airmass after this next bout of rain to improve things. We need to get rid of this wet northerly stuff.

Club pilots meeting last night...generally quite good. As a group we struggle to stay "on topic" at times.

By the time I left there were signs we where starting to think "outside the squre" a bit. The risk is we revert to type and go back to doing what we've always done...and thereby get what we've always got...a declining membership.

Evening training slots mid-week...great idea. Block training courses, worth a go.
A marketing plan...that would be bold.

Hope at last...

This is something to watch out for in the new Duo...

We have the same set-up with a similiar cockpit (Duo vs Nimbus).

Today started off with an incident on takeoff with the Nimbus bouncing along with about 320 lbs of water ballast when the control stick (which is usually fully  deflected to both sides at the beginning of the roll) jammed in the full right position. The right wing dropped and I was reaching for the tow release when I was able to overcome the jam and get control back.  What occurred was something I have never seen or heard of before: There are holes in the back of the PDA cradle (which has a rounded bottom edge) and during a bounce the cradle went down and the push to talk button on the top of the stick depressed and got stuck in the hole. Once the spring loaded button popped into the hole  it was stuck and it wasn't until I forced it back (dislodging the button from the stick) that I got control back.

 

These photos explain the problem.  Note the hole and the rounded edge of the back of the Cradle. 

 

  

The next photo shows how the button on the stick locked up into the hole:

 

 

Top view of the cradle & stick locked together:

 

 

I have never heard of this happening before -but I would recommend that users of this type of cradle (or any with holes in the back) fill in the holes with plastic resin or something.

Thanks to Paul Remede for the cut and paste from his excellent newsletter...

Wednesday...I think not

I hoped it might work tomorrow but it's not looking very good...this trough isn't going anywhere very fast.
Thursday maybe...but again it's not a stunner...maybe possible to get over the Kaimai's into the increasing NW winds.

We may have to go through all this again...

Looks like next weekend could be just as exciting as that which we have just been through...
Central pressure dropped to 988Hpa yesterday whereas the forecast for this low is 982Hpa...more wind and rain.

Get your practise in during the week...cos not much is going to be possible on Sat/Sun.

Still it's a long way away.

We have a pilots meeting on Wednesday.

I may miss the big event however some-one may wish to outline the cunning plan to grow membership. We are now at 50 members (if we include kids, cats and dogs). Not bad you might say...however 8 years ago we had 85-90. Should we be worried about this?

To grow membership under the traditional system we need to be training 20 odd students a year rather than the current 10-12. Maybe we need to do something non-traditional...

Signs of an improvement

But we have had 150mm now...

Glider pilots...start your engines...at this stage Wednesday and Thursday look OK for some club class practise...Tuesday might be on as well but I'm in Taupo climbing Tauhara and swimming in the lake.

It's not changing much...

This doesn't look much different from 8pm last night...except in the meantime we have had 70mm of rain (7am).
And now 2 hours later we have had 100mm. However my cuzzie-bro has had 170mm...Te Matai Road.

Hmmm...this can't be good...

Forget the Weekend...

Middle of next week looks OK...

Yesterdays forecast...

Spot on I'd say...yay forecasting...
Although the sea breeze was stronger than I thought, if you'd launched at 12-12.30 you would have away and laughing...

However...the next 4-5 days are a whole different ball game. It'll be good for farming, bad for gliding.
We might see a few clear spells if the winds are SE but it'll be too windy for much...

Go on...give it a try...you know you want to...

Despite the RASP forecast only suggesting a poor day I think it'll be OK.
Light S to SE winds and cloud bases up around 5-6000ft. What more do you need??
Well, spare time would help...I'm out of action as today is the first day of 2011 I need to put a suit on...bugger.

RASP is forecasting a blue day, but it's also forecasting warmer temps than I think will transpire...

Squiggly line graphs are suggesting some cloud, and bases up around 5-5500ft around the back of Tauranga and slightly better than that in the Waikato.

Just over the Kaimai's at 4pm. 6000ft thermals, some cloud, SE winds and encroaching sea breeze. All good...

MacLarens Falls area at 4pm. 5000ft cloud base, some cloud and sea breeze.

Long long long range forecast for Contest Week...

Short answer...we have no idea BUT NIWA/MetService Seasonal Forecast can give us a feel for the general pattern.
Issued on the 10th Jan.

Waikato, Taumarunui, Taihape, Taupo, TaranakiRAIN: about normal, but continuing below normal in some inland areas.
WIND: easterly episodes.
TEMPERATURE: continuing above normal.
SUNSHINE: continuing about normal.
SPECIALS: thunderstorms.
CONFIDENCE: moderate.
Extended dry periods are likely as anticyclones cross southern New Zealand. When an anticyclone moves off to the east, there may be a day or so of rain from a passing trough, followed by a day or so of isolated torrential thunderstorms. Some rain days may be associated with a low approaching from the north.

And as you can see we have just had rain associated with a low from the north...46mm last night.
It's also worth noting that no mention is made of westerlies...so maybe the ridge will be "out of bounds".

Want to go flying??? I don't think so...

Let's hope we don't see anything like this during the Club class Nationals.
A growing list of pilots are entering the first stand-alone Club Class Nationals...looks like it'll be a great week.
Are they entering for the prize money, cos it's been seperated from the Multi-class Nationals, or it's getting too expensive to travel to Omarama??? Who knows, maybe we should survey the pilots at the start of the contest...
Rumour has it the Club's Janus is being entered...

Caption Contest

This shot was captured on Piako's webcam yesterday afternoon...a real stunner...

Some that come to mind...
"A depression approaches..."
"Scottish dance troupe practise at airfield"
"Mum,  my dandruff shampoo doesn't work..."

Well, I must have been desperate...

Because I towed GNM down to the field, rigged, and launched into what I thought would be a real challenge.
With the prevailing wind being more SW than forecast (250-260 degrees at the ridge) we had a light convergence as well as some ridge lift.
Getting to the ridge was a breeze (pun intended)...climbed to 4000ft over Whakamaramara and floated over without any loss of height.
Met up with the GDX and GCS from Auckland doing a short task to Putaruru.
The swamp was working upto 5000ft but there were signs of the sea breeze coming down the Hauraki Plains.

All in all a better day than I had forecast, or expected.

The club's Duo was doing a few check flights, and the new half owner of GYR got to play in the convergence for 1.5 hours...good stuff.

Photo's below...click on them to get a better view...

The back edge of the convergence...

The Waikato...what dry barren place...rain is required...

The high point on the Kaimai's looking back towards Waihi. Cloud base was 4500 lifting to 5000ft over the swamp

Inversion in place

With the high departing (and a big low on the way in) we have a strong inversion in place.

While the squiggly line graph (for the McLarens Falls area) suggests cloud bases of 4000ft at 1pm, the lines cross to the left of the red line which suggests it'll be blue. The RASP forecasts are suggesting something similiar.

The interesting part to the mix is the W to NW winds - 5-10 knots at 5000ft and 15 knots above that. the ridge might work...the challange will be getting the there.

The RASP is not forecasting any convergence lines and given the Northerly wind flow that seems a reasonable prediction.

For those really really desperate they might be a small window at 12-ish.

Instructing...

I'll be about the field today being an instructor...it's been awhile. Happy to give Duo ratings where time permits...
Weather doesn't look great...low cloud bases due to the incoming Northerly airmass...

What does a sea breeze mean?

The video clip is a timelapse of today, looking west towards the Kaimai's.
Unfortunately the quality of the video gets badly degraded when uploaded to the blog...take my word for it it's really cool. I can send anyone the actual file although it's 24 mb's.
From 1pm through to 4pm condensed down to 14 seconds.
The wind was a light S to SW and you can watch the thermals boiling away. However from about 8 seconds in you can see the wind off to the far right change and very quickly afterwards lower clouds start to appear from the right, which is the sea air moving inland.

As you will know, the sea air is cooler and wetter so the cloud base drops. It also cuts off any further thermal development so very quickly it blues out...

It wasn't a strong sea breeze so by about 5.30pm the Southerly had re-asserted itself and clouds started forming back nearer the coast. Looking south now (7.30pm) the southerly front is appearing.

Cool eh...

I promised to do this late last year...so here goes

Another year over…I hope you had fun…(pinched from J Lennon)

(Actually it ended 13 days ago...but I'm a slow learner)

2010 was the year that brought you;

Wikileaks…and a disproportionate response…

To RASP or not to RASP…and other fabled weather forecasts…

6 land-outs in GNM…sorta said it all really…

To Blog or not to Blog…and a disproportionate response…

Some new blood to gliding but unfortunately many more leaving…

Sadly, lots of accidents…

11,000kms of X-Country flying last summer…(but it looks like a lot less this year)

50mm of rain in late December…yipee (and then another 150mm showed up just before Xmas...double yipee)

PSa…no, not the Public Service Assoc, but Pseudomonas syringae pv actinidiae…

$7 per kilo for Milksolids…thanks to Mr & Mrs China…

More new gliding gadgets…most noticeably, Oudie, PowerFlarm, Nano, Spot and Soaring Spot…

The short life, demise, and then the apparent resurrection, of the Rebelsoarer…(as a hint there is a spell checker in the top right hand corner...it might help..."braindead" became briandead (which will be news to him), or draindead...that might be better suited to Brisbane) But keep going any comments are better then none...

The bruised and battered body of the club’s newsletter editor found on the side of the road…well not really, but he decided it was time for a change…

Somewhere on the horizon a new Duodiscus XLT going X-country...but not yet...

Enough rambling…now for something different…facts, oh how boring I hear you think, or thought you said…

This year I posted 194 posts on the blog site, up from 164 the year before. Reaction was varied…3 blogs directly addressed issues at the local club and for that I received a letter, a motion in the club’s minutes and some rather silly comments from a few others (some of which should know better). The concept of Free Speech is a fragile beast...

Blog views are running at about 2-3000 per month...I have no idea what that means. The topic's of most interest are the ones I got slapped about with a wet bus ticket...

And if you got this far down the page you are a sad sack and need help...or to go flying. Tomorrow has some promise...and I'm available for Duo ratings on Saturday...

Thursday

It looks do-able today.

Sea breeze convergences, 6000ft cloud base, good to the south.

Increasing weather extremes...I don't think so...

Global warming, climate change...call it what you will, but I'm not seeing it...

With the end of another year I now have 19 years worth of rainfall data for the farm.

The trend is upwards...that's probably a good thing...although the R'squared is quite low.

 The month to month variation hasn't moved much...the highest and lowest rainfall months are scattered throughout the 19 years. The driest ever month was July in 1993 and the wettest Dec 2003.

However I'm betting the "diggers" over the ditch will beg to differ. I've tried to log-on to the Darling Downs website to see if they are affected...it's certainly green and very wet but the webcam quality is crap so it's hard to tell...however the video coverage of Toowoonba didn't look very flash...

It's been a bad couple of months for the West Island...lost the Ashes, fires in Perth, floods in Queensland, the coming humiliation in the Rugby World Cup...

Tow planes...who relaunched this debate???

I see in the seemingly endless stream of e-mail traffic that circulated whilst I was sunning myself at the beach was a diatribe about tow planes and especially PNE.

In amongst the commentary was the braindead suggestion we should by an AirTruck...also known as a Transavia PL12. Apparently it was the "best" towplane ever...quite what "best" means I'm not sure??? Brightest colour scheme, highest fuel consumption per minute,  most comical looking tow plane ever...

However if the fellow had done just the smallest amount of homework he would have discovered that there are only 2 flying in the world...1 in the land of the big flood but no Ashes, and the other in Slovenia. The only examples in NZ are in museums...

He might also have considered the fuel consumption with a 300hp motor...

Let's keep looking shall we...and besides, what's wrong with a slow rate of climb??? It means I end up off tow near the edge of the Control zone, not overhead the city...much better.

500 km day

Today is a 500km day...one of the better forecasts I've seen in a while.

Warm temps, high inversion, light winds, late development of sea breezes, high cloud bases, clouds to mark the way...who could ask for more.

Convergences...looks like a round Lake Taupo day...

Taupo cloud base...small lake breeze at 4pm...

Te Papa in the Waikato.

Probably should task up towards the Swamp and then around Taupo.

Hmmm...bulk e-mail systems

For the record...I have not now, or ever, used the clubs bulk e-mail system (subject to my poor memory...sorry what was I talking about...oh yes - e-mails) but having arrived back home after 10 days the in tray is full of gliding e-mails. So to the misguided clot who suggested I (amougst others) stop e-mailing that the volume would decrease - please remember a reduction from Zero is still zero...


A short summary shows - some are interesting
Most are not...

I have mentioned a number of times to "Her in charge of being in charge" that the system is fine so long as some-one moderates them...ie an administrator. Maybe the club captain or the Newsletter editor might like to do the job.

 Time to get GNM out soon...

Monday - Is anyone flying today??

If so, it'll be another good day. I'm still out of action but I hope some-one is making use of the sky.

Cloud bases behind Tauranga should be 6500ft and higher as you go inland. Blue south of Taupo. Good along the hills and down the western side of the Lake. Inversion starting to build up high. This will slowly lower during the next few days so expect each day to get bluer, cloud bases to get lower and the sea breezes to get stronger.

Here at the beach there is a moderate SE up high, the last few days the sea breeze hasn't arrived til after lunch but today I think it'll be earlier.

Omarama was hot, blue and with a strong inversion in place...good day for swimming apparently...they are not having a classic Omarama summer yet.

Sunday - 5am

Go west and south. Looks like a great day. If I could go flying (which I can't...) I'd task down towards Kuratau and across towards Te Kuiti.
I see the club's LS4 got a workout yesterday by going around Rotorua on the tried and trusted track...

So Metservice are predicting heavy TStorms today...Why??

Have a look at the squiggly line graph. Both lines are close together...cloud and rain forms very quickly, and the cloud tops are very very high. However the rising air is likely to fall as rain before hail forms...having said this I'm guessing hail is a probability but not big stones...

After todays system we get drier clear air from the SE...should produce some very good days...for those who want to do a 500km this weeks the best option for a while. You would be tasking out across the Waikato and then down the western side of lake Taupo. Going east of Taupo is likely to get mixed up with sea air from Hawkes Bay. Could be blue is places but strong thermals and high cloud bases... and I'm stuck at the beach...bugger.

Good weather on the way...

From tomorrow the prospects look much better. I'm out of action for another 5 days...but hopefully back in action in GNM by mid next week.

Another poor day for our speedsters...

Not sure they will get any task today in Omarama, maybe a short one late in the day BUT tomorrow looks like a real classic Omarama day. Ridge, wave and thermals. Cloud bases 9500-11000ft. I'm guessing they will set a big task for the long wing guys...will be fun to watch.
Here at the beach it is hot...just the way it is meant to be...

Don'y expect Nth Is gliding conditions to improve for a few days yet...

A better day for the lads from the Tauranga...

Brett second and Adrian 4th.
Replaying the tracklogs on SeeYou it looks like it was a tough day at the office.
Well done...I'm off to drag kids around te harbour behind the boat...
More northerly weather for the week ahead...I'm not missing any gliding...

They are underway...

Day 1 of the Multi-Class nationals in Omarama.
Apparently it's raining...but with Roy as contest director why are we surprised...

A short task that started late but was devalued due to pilots zipping around in under 2 hours.
GVM got to test his turbo...twice by the look of the track log
GOI finished middle of the field although in the Standard/15m class...he must have removed his wing extensions???
Hopefully the weather improves for them...there is water being spilled from the hydro lakes, Wanaka and Q'town are on flood alert...what next??

Although spare a thought for the Queensland Gliding Clubs...I can't find much news about them but Dalby appeared on the news the other night...under water...doesn't bode well for Darling Downs... 

Take the week off...

I am, we are off to the beach...the weather looks like crap from now until the 12th. Maybe a few sunny days, but with N/NE winds cloud bases will be low. No 3-500km chances for a while.

Piako are at Raglan for the next 3 weeks. If a very good SW looks in the offering I'm off to fly up and down the west coast. I'll keep you posted...

A couple of things from yesterday that I had forgotten to mention...

Firstly, the journey back over the Kaimai's was somewhat delayed as an ambulance had hit a bridge...if the patient inside was already dead does that add to the holiday road toll??

Secondly, there were 4 Discus flying out of Matamata yesterday GNM, GXP, GPV and GCS...what is the plural of discus - discus's's, discusi, disused, discussed, disrupted???

Third, one even landed out...well done that man...one got very low at Tokoroa, but got away...well done indeed, one forgot his batteries and had to bludge some off another pilot...not very well done...

3 pilots from Drury managed to fly down to Tirau/Putaruru, but whether they got home we never heard. GZM, GNT, GOP. GNT got very low at Tirau...wheel down and paddock selected, before fighting for 30 minutes to get back onto the hills.

This exposes the challange of managing a turbo...if he had flamed up then his task/contest day would be over. And given the suggestion of doing this at 1500ft AGL then my day would have been done for twice...Yesterday the cloud base was only 3500-4000ft, the thermals were well marked but quite short lived (because of the low cloud base) and tended to fizzle 500ft short of cloud base, that would give you an operating range of 1-1500ft (allowing time to find a thermal). Given my propensity to fight it out all the way down to the ground (which is probably why I land out from time to frequent time) a turbo will prove a challange indeed...I suspect I'll require almost as many retrieves as usual...

And so it was...a struggle that is....

Only a short flight. Blue to the south of Putaruru. Looked OK to the north of Matamata but by the time I got back to the MBZ I was feeling fairly "had it", so I gave it away.
Heaps of action on the Piako airfield. Auckland club is on site with a winch as well as 2 two seaters. Piako were busy, and on top of that over 100 sky divers (splats) were leaping from perfectly good aeroplanes.

Large sea breeze convergence behind Tga, although it might not have been visible from the Tga airport.

Today will be a struggle...

I'm off to fly out of Matamata only because GNM is tied down over there. I'm not expecting a stunner...but then yesterday was predicted to be great and wasn't, so maybe today being forecast to be poor will be super...yeah right.

Tauranga at 4pm - typical summer inversion, lots of sea air, probably going blue from 2pm and 3-3500ft bases. Fly to the Poripori strip and practise your land-outs...but check it's clear of cows first...

Te Poi/Te Papa. Some sea air by 4pm. Clouds marking thermals but bases only 4-4500ft. Clouds will be shalow and short lived, typial of an inversion in place. Probably OK to task down past tokoroa.

So it didn't turn out as planned...

Westerlies all day, but not strong enough to make the Coromandels really good, blued out everywhere from about 3pm.
Still according to SeeYou at 300km day all the same.

Just look at that sky...why did Maurice land-out??

 The new Kopu Bridge under construction.

500km task - 1st Jan

Happy New Year...let's hope it's better than 2010.
The weather. Westerlies until late today. Cloud bases 6-8000ft inland. Not many sea breezes until late except maybe Tauranga.
Easterly sea air moving through the gap into the Taupo area.

The task...

The Swamp at 1pm. Probably blue but note the West/SW wind...good for the ridge.

Te Papa Area at 4pm...again, note the wind. Better cloud markers.

The Taupo area...note the cloud base...

Flew in GXT yesterday to give Brian Chesterman a chance...it flew like a good glider should.

I see we have a new instructor on the list...I guess I didn't attend the instructors meeting where he was re-appointed. The more the merrier...