Inversion in place

With the high departing (and a big low on the way in) we have a strong inversion in place.

While the squiggly line graph (for the McLarens Falls area) suggests cloud bases of 4000ft at 1pm, the lines cross to the left of the red line which suggests it'll be blue. The RASP forecasts are suggesting something similiar.

The interesting part to the mix is the W to NW winds - 5-10 knots at 5000ft and 15 knots above that. the ridge might work...the challange will be getting the there.

The RASP is not forecasting any convergence lines and given the Northerly wind flow that seems a reasonable prediction.

For those really really desperate they might be a small window at 12-ish.

Instructing...

I'll be about the field today being an instructor...it's been awhile. Happy to give Duo ratings where time permits...
Weather doesn't look great...low cloud bases due to the incoming Northerly airmass...

What does a sea breeze mean?

The video clip is a timelapse of today, looking west towards the Kaimai's.
Unfortunately the quality of the video gets badly degraded when uploaded to the blog...take my word for it it's really cool. I can send anyone the actual file although it's 24 mb's.
From 1pm through to 4pm condensed down to 14 seconds.
The wind was a light S to SW and you can watch the thermals boiling away. However from about 8 seconds in you can see the wind off to the far right change and very quickly afterwards lower clouds start to appear from the right, which is the sea air moving inland.

As you will know, the sea air is cooler and wetter so the cloud base drops. It also cuts off any further thermal development so very quickly it blues out...

It wasn't a strong sea breeze so by about 5.30pm the Southerly had re-asserted itself and clouds started forming back nearer the coast. Looking south now (7.30pm) the southerly front is appearing.

Cool eh...

I promised to do this late last year...so here goes

Another year over…I hope you had fun…(pinched from J Lennon)

(Actually it ended 13 days ago...but I'm a slow learner)

2010 was the year that brought you;

Wikileaks…and a disproportionate response…

To RASP or not to RASP…and other fabled weather forecasts…

6 land-outs in GNM…sorta said it all really…

To Blog or not to Blog…and a disproportionate response…

Some new blood to gliding but unfortunately many more leaving…

Sadly, lots of accidents…

11,000kms of X-Country flying last summer…(but it looks like a lot less this year)

50mm of rain in late December…yipee (and then another 150mm showed up just before Xmas...double yipee)

PSa…no, not the Public Service Assoc, but Pseudomonas syringae pv actinidiae…

$7 per kilo for Milksolids…thanks to Mr & Mrs China…

More new gliding gadgets…most noticeably, Oudie, PowerFlarm, Nano, Spot and Soaring Spot…

The short life, demise, and then the apparent resurrection, of the Rebelsoarer…(as a hint there is a spell checker in the top right hand corner...it might help..."braindead" became briandead (which will be news to him), or draindead...that might be better suited to Brisbane) But keep going any comments are better then none...

The bruised and battered body of the club’s newsletter editor found on the side of the road…well not really, but he decided it was time for a change…

Somewhere on the horizon a new Duodiscus XLT going X-country...but not yet...

Enough rambling…now for something different…facts, oh how boring I hear you think, or thought you said…

This year I posted 194 posts on the blog site, up from 164 the year before. Reaction was varied…3 blogs directly addressed issues at the local club and for that I received a letter, a motion in the club’s minutes and some rather silly comments from a few others (some of which should know better). The concept of Free Speech is a fragile beast...

Blog views are running at about 2-3000 per month...I have no idea what that means. The topic's of most interest are the ones I got slapped about with a wet bus ticket...

And if you got this far down the page you are a sad sack and need help...or to go flying. Tomorrow has some promise...and I'm available for Duo ratings on Saturday...

Thursday

It looks do-able today.

Sea breeze convergences, 6000ft cloud base, good to the south.

Increasing weather extremes...I don't think so...

Global warming, climate change...call it what you will, but I'm not seeing it...

With the end of another year I now have 19 years worth of rainfall data for the farm.

The trend is upwards...that's probably a good thing...although the R'squared is quite low.

 The month to month variation hasn't moved much...the highest and lowest rainfall months are scattered throughout the 19 years. The driest ever month was July in 1993 and the wettest Dec 2003.

However I'm betting the "diggers" over the ditch will beg to differ. I've tried to log-on to the Darling Downs website to see if they are affected...it's certainly green and very wet but the webcam quality is crap so it's hard to tell...however the video coverage of Toowoonba didn't look very flash...

It's been a bad couple of months for the West Island...lost the Ashes, fires in Perth, floods in Queensland, the coming humiliation in the Rugby World Cup...

Tow planes...who relaunched this debate???

I see in the seemingly endless stream of e-mail traffic that circulated whilst I was sunning myself at the beach was a diatribe about tow planes and especially PNE.

In amongst the commentary was the braindead suggestion we should by an AirTruck...also known as a Transavia PL12. Apparently it was the "best" towplane ever...quite what "best" means I'm not sure??? Brightest colour scheme, highest fuel consumption per minute,  most comical looking tow plane ever...

However if the fellow had done just the smallest amount of homework he would have discovered that there are only 2 flying in the world...1 in the land of the big flood but no Ashes, and the other in Slovenia. The only examples in NZ are in museums...

He might also have considered the fuel consumption with a 300hp motor...

Let's keep looking shall we...and besides, what's wrong with a slow rate of climb??? It means I end up off tow near the edge of the Control zone, not overhead the city...much better.

500 km day

Today is a 500km day...one of the better forecasts I've seen in a while.

Warm temps, high inversion, light winds, late development of sea breezes, high cloud bases, clouds to mark the way...who could ask for more.

Convergences...looks like a round Lake Taupo day...

Taupo cloud base...small lake breeze at 4pm...

Te Papa in the Waikato.

Probably should task up towards the Swamp and then around Taupo.

Hmmm...bulk e-mail systems

For the record...I have not now, or ever, used the clubs bulk e-mail system (subject to my poor memory...sorry what was I talking about...oh yes - e-mails) but having arrived back home after 10 days the in tray is full of gliding e-mails. So to the misguided clot who suggested I (amougst others) stop e-mailing that the volume would decrease - please remember a reduction from Zero is still zero...


A short summary shows - some are interesting
Most are not...

I have mentioned a number of times to "Her in charge of being in charge" that the system is fine so long as some-one moderates them...ie an administrator. Maybe the club captain or the Newsletter editor might like to do the job.

 Time to get GNM out soon...

Monday - Is anyone flying today??

If so, it'll be another good day. I'm still out of action but I hope some-one is making use of the sky.

Cloud bases behind Tauranga should be 6500ft and higher as you go inland. Blue south of Taupo. Good along the hills and down the western side of the Lake. Inversion starting to build up high. This will slowly lower during the next few days so expect each day to get bluer, cloud bases to get lower and the sea breezes to get stronger.

Here at the beach there is a moderate SE up high, the last few days the sea breeze hasn't arrived til after lunch but today I think it'll be earlier.

Omarama was hot, blue and with a strong inversion in place...good day for swimming apparently...they are not having a classic Omarama summer yet.

Sunday - 5am

Go west and south. Looks like a great day. If I could go flying (which I can't...) I'd task down towards Kuratau and across towards Te Kuiti.
I see the club's LS4 got a workout yesterday by going around Rotorua on the tried and trusted track...

So Metservice are predicting heavy TStorms today...Why??

Have a look at the squiggly line graph. Both lines are close together...cloud and rain forms very quickly, and the cloud tops are very very high. However the rising air is likely to fall as rain before hail forms...having said this I'm guessing hail is a probability but not big stones...

After todays system we get drier clear air from the SE...should produce some very good days...for those who want to do a 500km this weeks the best option for a while. You would be tasking out across the Waikato and then down the western side of lake Taupo. Going east of Taupo is likely to get mixed up with sea air from Hawkes Bay. Could be blue is places but strong thermals and high cloud bases... and I'm stuck at the beach...bugger.

Good weather on the way...

From tomorrow the prospects look much better. I'm out of action for another 5 days...but hopefully back in action in GNM by mid next week.

Another poor day for our speedsters...

Not sure they will get any task today in Omarama, maybe a short one late in the day BUT tomorrow looks like a real classic Omarama day. Ridge, wave and thermals. Cloud bases 9500-11000ft. I'm guessing they will set a big task for the long wing guys...will be fun to watch.
Here at the beach it is hot...just the way it is meant to be...

Don'y expect Nth Is gliding conditions to improve for a few days yet...

A better day for the lads from the Tauranga...

Brett second and Adrian 4th.
Replaying the tracklogs on SeeYou it looks like it was a tough day at the office.
Well done...I'm off to drag kids around te harbour behind the boat...
More northerly weather for the week ahead...I'm not missing any gliding...

They are underway...

Day 1 of the Multi-Class nationals in Omarama.
Apparently it's raining...but with Roy as contest director why are we surprised...

A short task that started late but was devalued due to pilots zipping around in under 2 hours.
GVM got to test his turbo...twice by the look of the track log
GOI finished middle of the field although in the Standard/15m class...he must have removed his wing extensions???
Hopefully the weather improves for them...there is water being spilled from the hydro lakes, Wanaka and Q'town are on flood alert...what next??

Although spare a thought for the Queensland Gliding Clubs...I can't find much news about them but Dalby appeared on the news the other night...under water...doesn't bode well for Darling Downs... 

Take the week off...

I am, we are off to the beach...the weather looks like crap from now until the 12th. Maybe a few sunny days, but with N/NE winds cloud bases will be low. No 3-500km chances for a while.

Piako are at Raglan for the next 3 weeks. If a very good SW looks in the offering I'm off to fly up and down the west coast. I'll keep you posted...

A couple of things from yesterday that I had forgotten to mention...

Firstly, the journey back over the Kaimai's was somewhat delayed as an ambulance had hit a bridge...if the patient inside was already dead does that add to the holiday road toll??

Secondly, there were 4 Discus flying out of Matamata yesterday GNM, GXP, GPV and GCS...what is the plural of discus - discus's's, discusi, disused, discussed, disrupted???

Third, one even landed out...well done that man...one got very low at Tokoroa, but got away...well done indeed, one forgot his batteries and had to bludge some off another pilot...not very well done...

3 pilots from Drury managed to fly down to Tirau/Putaruru, but whether they got home we never heard. GZM, GNT, GOP. GNT got very low at Tirau...wheel down and paddock selected, before fighting for 30 minutes to get back onto the hills.

This exposes the challange of managing a turbo...if he had flamed up then his task/contest day would be over. And given the suggestion of doing this at 1500ft AGL then my day would have been done for twice...Yesterday the cloud base was only 3500-4000ft, the thermals were well marked but quite short lived (because of the low cloud base) and tended to fizzle 500ft short of cloud base, that would give you an operating range of 1-1500ft (allowing time to find a thermal). Given my propensity to fight it out all the way down to the ground (which is probably why I land out from time to frequent time) a turbo will prove a challange indeed...I suspect I'll require almost as many retrieves as usual...

And so it was...a struggle that is....

Only a short flight. Blue to the south of Putaruru. Looked OK to the north of Matamata but by the time I got back to the MBZ I was feeling fairly "had it", so I gave it away.
Heaps of action on the Piako airfield. Auckland club is on site with a winch as well as 2 two seaters. Piako were busy, and on top of that over 100 sky divers (splats) were leaping from perfectly good aeroplanes.

Large sea breeze convergence behind Tga, although it might not have been visible from the Tga airport.

Today will be a struggle...

I'm off to fly out of Matamata only because GNM is tied down over there. I'm not expecting a stunner...but then yesterday was predicted to be great and wasn't, so maybe today being forecast to be poor will be super...yeah right.

Tauranga at 4pm - typical summer inversion, lots of sea air, probably going blue from 2pm and 3-3500ft bases. Fly to the Poripori strip and practise your land-outs...but check it's clear of cows first...

Te Poi/Te Papa. Some sea air by 4pm. Clouds marking thermals but bases only 4-4500ft. Clouds will be shalow and short lived, typial of an inversion in place. Probably OK to task down past tokoroa.

So it didn't turn out as planned...

Westerlies all day, but not strong enough to make the Coromandels really good, blued out everywhere from about 3pm.
Still according to SeeYou at 300km day all the same.

Just look at that sky...why did Maurice land-out??

 The new Kopu Bridge under construction.

500km task - 1st Jan

Happy New Year...let's hope it's better than 2010.
The weather. Westerlies until late today. Cloud bases 6-8000ft inland. Not many sea breezes until late except maybe Tauranga.
Easterly sea air moving through the gap into the Taupo area.

The task...

The Swamp at 1pm. Probably blue but note the West/SW wind...good for the ridge.

Te Papa Area at 4pm...again, note the wind. Better cloud markers.

The Taupo area...note the cloud base...

Flew in GXT yesterday to give Brian Chesterman a chance...it flew like a good glider should.

I see we have a new instructor on the list...I guess I didn't attend the instructors meeting where he was re-appointed. The more the merrier...

Weather requests...

Today - poor
Tomorrow - better
Sunday - OK

None of it looks stunning, but 2-300km flights should be possible...

Turbo ratings...We are starting to build a head of steam...

Monitoring the e-mail traffic concerning the starting of the turbo's in the air...

Good grief and golly gosh boys and girls...
From the DG400 team...
Our motor has failed to start 10% of the time - well I'm not bloody surprised, it's 20 year old technology that is designed to self-launch.
Lots of stories about prangs in the Sth Is - yip - older motors again...but remember there have been far more prangs in gliders without turbo's, a ratio of about 20:1. And besides that lot in the South Island have bugger all else to talk about...I know, I lived there and it gets pretty slow at times...

More from others...
We should be above 1500ft, we should deploy the landing gear and do pre-landing checks before attempting a practise start...oh for the love of G-d, with the motor out the Duo has a sink rate approaching that of a PW5, what are we suggesting?? That any PW5 pilots should also give away any attempt to fly below 1500ft???

Let's come back to earth for a minute shall we?? (excuse the pun)

Do you want this big thing to go X-Country? Then expect that you'll need to spend time below 1500ft AGL...cos sometimes that's what it takes to find a thermal.

We seem to be putting alot of effort into identifying airstrips...I thought we taught people to find a suitable paddock and land in that. Remember all that stuff about Slope, surface wind, size etc etc.
I'm betting the greatest risk will come from some-one flying to an airstrip identified on the database, getting there, finding it covered in cows, panicking, rushing an engine start and it all turns to custard. It's won't be the turbo at fault, it'll be the reliance on airstrips at fault..

I clearly remember when this glider was in the planning stage talking to the owner of the worlds largest fleet of Duo's (he lives down south, seems to be quite well known), that a turbo would be a mistake;
It would distract people from the real business of flying...
It would reduce the X-country range of the glider because of the height required for a re-start.
It would add cost.
It adds complexity.

We are following the trajectory he predicted...can we prove him wrong???
Otherwise I suggest remove the turbo so we can do some serious X-country flying...

Typical...the year will finish as it started...

With northerlies, rain and low cloud...great for farming, crap for gliding.
Total hours I spent gliding this year - 65. The lowest since 2002.
Admittedly the flying in Feb-Apr last autumn was quite good as it was so dry, but since then it's been dismal.

Other noticeable trends.


Number of land-outs I completed - up
X-Country Kms I completed - down


Number of gliders the local club owns - up
Number of members - down


Costs - up
Total club flying hours - down


Amount of E-mail traffic between members - up
Quality of content - down


Attacks on Free speech - up
Inclusive decision making - down


Number of blogs and facebook pages about gliding - up
Value of content - probably up as well albeit a little patchy


Number of contests I could fly - up (Club Class Nationals)
Number of free days I have to fly in them - down


I'm sure others can add to these trends...

Wed 29th Dec

Dennis Dutton...RIP. Founder of "Arts and Letters Daily", NZ Skeptic's Society, and Prof at Canterbury University.  http://www.aldaily.com/

Weather...

Interesting...an inversion in place as well as sea breezes from lunchtime. Suggestion of high cloud late in the day...especially if the forecast front which passed over yesterday backtracks...we'll see.
Likely to be mostly blue...although if it gets hot enough some clouds will form.
Not many convergences...
If the thermals get going expect bases at 5500ft inland...the squiggly line below is for the McLarens Falls area...inland from Tga.

Good luck...it's all academic to me...we still have silage on the ground from Monday which we need to get finished before Thursday/Friday's rain...which gives you a hint for the flying leading upto New Years.