Don't get excited...

I know the sun is out and there is a light westerly breeze. There is even some signs of wave on the Kaimai's... Unfortunately cloud bases will be low-ish...and the wind is forecast to go Northerly later to day. I'm off fishing...

Sunday 20th

Forecast. No high cloud. 3pm cloud base forecast to be 4500-5000ft behind Tauranga, probably higher the further south you go. Light easterlies A reasonable day. Pity because I'm busy all day today. Probable task. Tga - Lake Rotoma - Galatea - Home

Even better than Omarama...

Except for the Mormons... Going up at 12.5 knots to 18,000ft. Just like Tauranga...not.

X-Country kms...

Welcome to our new X-Country competitor...Mr Paul Ellison. We expect big things...no presure. Paul logs in with his first X-Country distance for this summer with a flight upto on the Kaimai's followed by a slide down the other side and finally a land-out at Piako. Total 75kms. We have logged 1500 kms for the first 6 weeks of the summer season. Or 250kms per week. Not bad so far... The drug dealers are still in front B Hunter 600 plus kms M Arundel almost 400 kms Then the farmer... D Jensen almost 300 kms... Keep it up...or should I say stay high...

Well it was a bit better...

Cloud base over Tauranga was as forecast...3500 ft or so. But i should have looked a bit further south where cloud bases where nearer 4500-5000ft. But it still wasn't that crash hot. And then when i landed I discovered some low-life had stolen my car...bastard.

Really not much better than yesterday...

Tuesday Forecast.

If it gets to 17 degrees...expect cloud base to be 3000ft. Not good. Light westerly at present so maybe it'll be a wave/ridge day. Lower level winds forecast to be 10 knots whereas 6500ft winds 15 knots SW...unfortunately the 10,000ft winds are light SW so wave doesn't look likely. Bits of wave visible out the window at present (6am). 6am I hear a certain life member ask!!!yip it's light before 6am these days.... Airspace...it appears GNZ has finally got a webpage up to log airspace complaints. Only 12 months after I suggested it...about as fast as a PW5...

Cloud base...any guess's???

Piako this morning...

I'm going to stick my neck out...

and suggest there might be some thermal days this week. Looks like Wednesday thru to the weekend might be the best prospect. And just to warm up try one of these videos http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LipeSXXe1Yk&feature=channel_page or http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xo6N6_9rNQ&feature=channel_page

Weekend Weather...

The less said the better...

Wednesday Wx

Doesn't look good. Cloud base 2-3000ft. If we get much cloud.

Shhh...don't tell anybody...

There might be a strategic plan for the club being developed. Our president produced an annual plan but its been a few years since we have consulted club members about their wishes for the next few years (other than tacking it onto AGM's and such like without people thinking about the issues in advance). Do we want to grow our membership? To do that we need 15-20 new people in training each year. Currently we are averaging about 10...so total membership is slowly dropping. What do you want to do with our aircraft fleet? How do we want to price things? Etc etc. Watch this space...

Couple of pic's from yesterday...

Yesterday and Today.

TODAY Another blue day. Winds are forecast to be lighter...although at present we still have moderate SE winds at home. Squiggly lines are forecasting a blue day with thermals tooping out at 5-6000ft around Tauranga and higher further inland. Oh well... YESTERDAY. It was mostly blue as well. Cloud base was a little lower than forecast but it didn't matter much as we couldn't go far. It was difficult to work out what was going on. The wind direction should have resulted in ridge/thermal lift off the Papamoa hills but a few of us tried this approach and got shot down.

A little unsure today...

Wind - 10-15 knots at ground level, 35-40 knots at 6500ft. Strong SE at day break on Mt Ruapehu. So quite strong...maybe slightly more than yesterday. Direction ESE Temperature profile. Only need about 12 degrees to kick off thermal development but the dew point also drops off very fast so the graph is predicting a blue day. Unless the ground temp gets past 20 degrees...this seems unlikely. I'm guessing that we will get small Cu's that cycle quite fast. If you blunder into a thermal they should be quite strong but narrow and broken by the wind strenght. If the wind does abate then it'll be a goodie...

Rush of blood...

One afternoon of sun and I assumed summer had arrived. Current T-Graph shows 15 degrees (current Metservive max temp for Tga) will give 7-8000ft cloudbase however 20-25 knots winds will rip said thermals apart. Interestingly, the temp on Mt Raupehu this morning is minus 10...a bit nippy. Will need the wind to drop. That's not forecast until Sunday. Back to work everybody...

So what happened???

Well not much wave to speak of. Thermals streeting off the ridge which peaked at about 3pm and slowly died off. Cloud base appeared to get to the forecast of 4-4500 ft but only just. Only one glider completed a task. Well done Brett - 350 kms. Sat photo is at 2.30pm showing plenty of thermal streets although big gaps in between. Also shows no sign of wave on the Tga side.

So what happened???

Wave day

Ok here goes... Wind at ground level - 10-15 knots SW Wind at 6500 ft - 25 knots SW Wind at 14000 ft - 25-30 knots SW If the temp gets to 15-16 degress then cloud base will be 4-4500 ft (which seems a little hard to believe). No major inclusions of mositure in the temp profile so don't expect the wave to zip up or high cloud to develop. I'm guessing a wave day...not super strong wave but good enough to climb and drop onto the ridge. Tasks - a) if the wave is stronger than forecast...then Wairoa Rive Bridge, Thames A/F, Fitzgerald Glade, Hikatuia, Wairoa Bridge - 318 kms b) if its more of a ridge day with weaker wave but some thermals and ridge...then Kaimai Road lookout, Thames A/F, BOP Fert Depot, Hikatuia, Road Crossing. 310 kms ...

15 secs of fame...

Google Earth has updated it's photo's for the local area. Have a look at the overhead shot of 04/22 at Tauranga. A certain towplane and ASW20 has just left the ground. Judging from the car parked at the clubhouse it looks like me sneaking away for a thermal flight.