So the RASP was right...and wrong...at the sametime.

It did successfully predict wave all over the Nth Is. It just didn't suggest whether it was use-able...which it wasn't due to all the cloud...

RASP predicts Wave

Let's see how good this RASP thingy is at predicting wave.
If you gaze at the forecast 10,000ft wind graphical below, the shades or blue to yellow indicate lift and sink. The model is suggesting wave behind almost every hill.
Some one once thought they could join the Kaimai wave to the wave behind Ruapehu and then into the Hawkes Bay and south.
Today is the day to do that...good luck.

Wave is a fickle thing..especially in the north Island...down south it seems to be everywhere.

Only trap I can see with the forecast is the wind strength doesn't seem to increase with height all that much. But you go girls...remember take some socks - it's cold up there.

Forecast was fairly accurate...

Cloud base was 4-4500ft. Some wave, ridge and some thermals. High cloud appeared at 4pm...how good is that?
Lots of water in the rivers...

Not a big day...quite grey in the Waikato.

It can all go wrong in a hurry...

This from Omarama yesterday...
A blustery southerly caught BO and PPA out. The Pawnee PPA drifted off the runway into the rough and groundlooped. The Duo Discus BO on tow followed him and hit a hollow in the rough that broke the tail boom.
No one was hurt.
The other striking thing about Omarama this summer is how green the airfield and surrounds are...it continues to rain all over NZ.

Inversion? What inversion...

There is a big inversion in place already.
It'll do 2 things. Stop thermals rising much above 4500ft and make the day go blue from 1-2pm onwards.

West to SW wind is forecast to blow all day, and probably at sufficient strength to keep any sea breeze at bay.

Will we get wave? Probably, but will it be good enough to use to cross the ridge?? Not sure.
It'll be a ridge day for sure, for sure. But how good?

To add to the mix the squiggly lines are suggesting some high cloud late in the day...probably from the front hitting the lower South Island.

Poripori at 1pm. Bases at 4000ft and going blue. Note the increasing wind with height...blue wave?

Te Papa at 4pm. Te Papa...where's that??? It is not the National Museum, it's the intersection of the road between Tirau and Rotorua.
Note the lines coming together near the top of the graph...

 

Sunday

A ridge day...plus wave...and some thermals.

I'll have a better look early tomorrow morning but it's shaping up as a good day to either, tow to the ridge, or climb in wave and drop down.

I think the SW will be strong enough to go up the Coromandels to look at the rain damage, and back down towards Putaruru.

170mm's in 6 hours...what do you get?

Lake Jensen

Tow-planes...again.

The issue of the local club's tow-planes was thrashed about for a while at the pilots meeting.
As is usual we lacked any real information so what we got was alot of personal opinions...however it was illuminating, more for what wasn't said...
It should be noted that about 5 years ago the club formed a sub-committee (the standard kiwi response to a problem...) who were asked to go out and see whats options were available.

This group was asked to consider -
- what performance characteristic's were required of a tow-plane operating on 04/22 towing the current and expected club fleet.
- can we move away from fabric aircraft and more towards modern plastic's/glass??
- we should also move away from air cooled Lycoming engines...for a whole host of reasons
- the availability of AvGas was under question...and I believe it still is...
- the noise footprint is an issue as we tow out over the city, and we couldn't, in all honesty, buy a tow-plane that was louder.
- cost of operation
- cost of purchase
- insurance, safety, compliance issues...eg does a homebuilt (RV's) or micro-lights (various brands) meet these tests? Are you allowed to tow gliders at less than 500ft over a built up area - think Hewletts Road???
- is there any robust data about? It's all very well saying "an RV9 climbs at 2000fpm", but does it with a Duo on the back??? The striking thing about a number of other tow planes we have tested, the performance under tow is quite different than you might have expected...both good and bad.

The short summary was...nothing was available, or was suitable. I don't think much has changed. So discounting suggestions for planes that no longer exist, or personal hopes or biases, I think all we can ask for is a regular review of what could be available...and regular is probably every 5 years.

Pity really...I was looking forward to a plastic/glass built, diesel powered, water cooled, tow-plane that out performed the current fleet...

Saturday...no, Sunday...yes, Monday...maybe

Better forecasts in the morning. At this early stage sundays looks a possible wave/ridge/thermal day whereas Monday has a small front arriving late in the day...should stuff up cloud bases...but we'll see.

Computer Tech support...

Tech Support: Okay Bob, press the control and escape
keys at the same time.  That brings up a task list in the
middle of the screen..  Now, type the letter 'P' to bring
up the Program Manager.
Customer: I don't have a 'P'.
Tech Support: On your keyboard, Bob.
Customer: What do you mean ?
Tech Support: 'P' . . . on your keyboard, Bob.
Customer: I AM NOT GOING TO DO THAT!!!

A newsletter and website

Paul Remede's new Newsletter -

http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=mfcbgfcab&et=1104301392833&s=3643&e=001E3vL0Fchpfdm-slhX-yzkI3MRwaY2E7PnKn6HgETHknKcB5hqr4kWO-HllzNrD23MuNgt3mbrvZJbKw3phVaII9oTy2g1hzRW6nHNxutIbyr8EP5P1hLOe2gOymOGdtjvNm6dp7F9yBM-uzLEgokOpFCkqNa-Tq8  

 

And a good new website...http://soaringcafe.com/

 

 

Today...no go I'm afraid



Ok for training, not much chop for X-country stuff. Not much good around Tauranga, the Waikato or Taupo.
I'm looking at a change in airmass after this next bout of rain to improve things. We need to get rid of this wet northerly stuff.

Club pilots meeting last night...generally quite good. As a group we struggle to stay "on topic" at times.

By the time I left there were signs we where starting to think "outside the squre" a bit. The risk is we revert to type and go back to doing what we've always done...and thereby get what we've always got...a declining membership.

Evening training slots mid-week...great idea. Block training courses, worth a go.
A marketing plan...that would be bold.

Hope at last...

This is something to watch out for in the new Duo...

We have the same set-up with a similiar cockpit (Duo vs Nimbus).

Today started off with an incident on takeoff with the Nimbus bouncing along with about 320 lbs of water ballast when the control stick (which is usually fully  deflected to both sides at the beginning of the roll) jammed in the full right position. The right wing dropped and I was reaching for the tow release when I was able to overcome the jam and get control back.  What occurred was something I have never seen or heard of before: There are holes in the back of the PDA cradle (which has a rounded bottom edge) and during a bounce the cradle went down and the push to talk button on the top of the stick depressed and got stuck in the hole. Once the spring loaded button popped into the hole  it was stuck and it wasn't until I forced it back (dislodging the button from the stick) that I got control back.

 

These photos explain the problem.  Note the hole and the rounded edge of the back of the Cradle. 

 

  

The next photo shows how the button on the stick locked up into the hole:

 

 

Top view of the cradle & stick locked together:

 

 

I have never heard of this happening before -but I would recommend that users of this type of cradle (or any with holes in the back) fill in the holes with plastic resin or something.

Thanks to Paul Remede for the cut and paste from his excellent newsletter...

Wednesday...I think not

I hoped it might work tomorrow but it's not looking very good...this trough isn't going anywhere very fast.
Thursday maybe...but again it's not a stunner...maybe possible to get over the Kaimai's into the increasing NW winds.

We may have to go through all this again...

Looks like next weekend could be just as exciting as that which we have just been through...
Central pressure dropped to 988Hpa yesterday whereas the forecast for this low is 982Hpa...more wind and rain.

Get your practise in during the week...cos not much is going to be possible on Sat/Sun.

Still it's a long way away.

We have a pilots meeting on Wednesday.

I may miss the big event however some-one may wish to outline the cunning plan to grow membership. We are now at 50 members (if we include kids, cats and dogs). Not bad you might say...however 8 years ago we had 85-90. Should we be worried about this?

To grow membership under the traditional system we need to be training 20 odd students a year rather than the current 10-12. Maybe we need to do something non-traditional...

Signs of an improvement

But we have had 150mm now...

Glider pilots...start your engines...at this stage Wednesday and Thursday look OK for some club class practise...Tuesday might be on as well but I'm in Taupo climbing Tauhara and swimming in the lake.

It's not changing much...

This doesn't look much different from 8pm last night...except in the meantime we have had 70mm of rain (7am).
And now 2 hours later we have had 100mm. However my cuzzie-bro has had 170mm...Te Matai Road.

Hmmm...this can't be good...

Forget the Weekend...

Middle of next week looks OK...

Yesterdays forecast...

Spot on I'd say...yay forecasting...
Although the sea breeze was stronger than I thought, if you'd launched at 12-12.30 you would have away and laughing...

However...the next 4-5 days are a whole different ball game. It'll be good for farming, bad for gliding.
We might see a few clear spells if the winds are SE but it'll be too windy for much...

Go on...give it a try...you know you want to...

Despite the RASP forecast only suggesting a poor day I think it'll be OK.
Light S to SE winds and cloud bases up around 5-6000ft. What more do you need??
Well, spare time would help...I'm out of action as today is the first day of 2011 I need to put a suit on...bugger.

RASP is forecasting a blue day, but it's also forecasting warmer temps than I think will transpire...

Squiggly line graphs are suggesting some cloud, and bases up around 5-5500ft around the back of Tauranga and slightly better than that in the Waikato.

Just over the Kaimai's at 4pm. 6000ft thermals, some cloud, SE winds and encroaching sea breeze. All good...

MacLarens Falls area at 4pm. 5000ft cloud base, some cloud and sea breeze.

Long long long range forecast for Contest Week...

Short answer...we have no idea BUT NIWA/MetService Seasonal Forecast can give us a feel for the general pattern.
Issued on the 10th Jan.

Waikato, Taumarunui, Taihape, Taupo, TaranakiRAIN: about normal, but continuing below normal in some inland areas.
WIND: easterly episodes.
TEMPERATURE: continuing above normal.
SUNSHINE: continuing about normal.
SPECIALS: thunderstorms.
CONFIDENCE: moderate.
Extended dry periods are likely as anticyclones cross southern New Zealand. When an anticyclone moves off to the east, there may be a day or so of rain from a passing trough, followed by a day or so of isolated torrential thunderstorms. Some rain days may be associated with a low approaching from the north.

And as you can see we have just had rain associated with a low from the north...46mm last night.
It's also worth noting that no mention is made of westerlies...so maybe the ridge will be "out of bounds".

Want to go flying??? I don't think so...

Let's hope we don't see anything like this during the Club class Nationals.
A growing list of pilots are entering the first stand-alone Club Class Nationals...looks like it'll be a great week.
Are they entering for the prize money, cos it's been seperated from the Multi-class Nationals, or it's getting too expensive to travel to Omarama??? Who knows, maybe we should survey the pilots at the start of the contest...
Rumour has it the Club's Janus is being entered...

Caption Contest

This shot was captured on Piako's webcam yesterday afternoon...a real stunner...

Some that come to mind...
"A depression approaches..."
"Scottish dance troupe practise at airfield"
"Mum,  my dandruff shampoo doesn't work..."

Well, I must have been desperate...

Because I towed GNM down to the field, rigged, and launched into what I thought would be a real challenge.
With the prevailing wind being more SW than forecast (250-260 degrees at the ridge) we had a light convergence as well as some ridge lift.
Getting to the ridge was a breeze (pun intended)...climbed to 4000ft over Whakamaramara and floated over without any loss of height.
Met up with the GDX and GCS from Auckland doing a short task to Putaruru.
The swamp was working upto 5000ft but there were signs of the sea breeze coming down the Hauraki Plains.

All in all a better day than I had forecast, or expected.

The club's Duo was doing a few check flights, and the new half owner of GYR got to play in the convergence for 1.5 hours...good stuff.

Photo's below...click on them to get a better view...

The back edge of the convergence...

The Waikato...what dry barren place...rain is required...

The high point on the Kaimai's looking back towards Waihi. Cloud base was 4500 lifting to 5000ft over the swamp